Factbox-Brokerages see unsure 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

(Reuters) – Uncertainties round U.S. insurance policies could gradual world financial progress modestly in 2025, based on main brokerages. They count on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to gas volatility throughout world markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in flip, limiting the scope for main central banks to ease financial coverage.

World economies and fairness markets have had a sturdy 12 months, with world progress anticipated to common 3.1% this 12 months, a Reuters ballot printed in October confirmed.

Following are forecasts from some high banks on financial progress, inflation and the efficiency of main asset courses in 2025:

Forecasts for shares, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

goal yield goal

UBS International 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60

Analysis

Goldman 6500 4.25% 1.03(subsequent 159(subsequent 7.50(subsequent

Sachs 12-months) 12-months 12-months)

)

UBS International 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Administration

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Funding

Institute

Societe 6750 4.50% (This autumn’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Generale

Deutsche 7000 4.7% (This autumn’25) 1.03 (This autumn’25) 7.50

Financial institution

Nomura 135 6.93

4.25% 1.03

Morgan 6500 3.55% (This autumn’25) 1.10 (This autumn’25) 138 7.60

Stanley (This autumn’25) (This autumn’25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50

BofA International 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Analysis

Wells Fargo 4.00% 0.98 (This autumn’25) 154 7.60

(This autumn’25) (This autumn’25)

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jefferies 6000 4.43%

Barclays (LON:BARC) 6600 4.25%

Piper 6600

Sandler

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20

BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 3.65% (This autumn’25) 1.15 (This autumn’25) 131

(This autumn’25)

Canaccord 6325

Genuity

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 6500 4.20% (This autumn’25)

ING 1.02 160 7.35

HSBC 6700

Evercore 6800

ISI

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 2.3% 2.5% (This autumn/This autumn)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Financial institution (ETR:DBKGn) 2.8% (This autumn/This autumn) 2.6% (This autumn/This autumn)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Funding

Institute

UBS International 2.6%

Wealth

Administration

Citigroup 2.5%

2.5%

BofA International 2.4% 2.3%

Analysis (This autumn/This autumn)

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Nomura 2.7%

3.0%

ING 2.4%

Wells Fargo 2.6%

Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%

UBS

International Analysis 2.5%

Actual GDP Progress:

Actual GDP progress forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS International 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Analysis FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.2% 6.3%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

UBS International Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Administration

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Citigroup 2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 1.0% 6.7%

Nomura 2.2 4.0% 1.0% 5.8%

2.9% 1.1%

BofA International 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% 0.9%

Analysis 1.5% 7.0%

Deutsche Financial institution 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.5%

Funding 2.6%

Institute

Berenberg 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 6.5%

2.6% 1.3%

BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

Peel Hunt 1.9% 4.4% 1.3% 1.6% 7.0%

ING 2.0% 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%

Jefferies 2.4%

(This autumn/This autumn)

* UBS International Analysis and UBS International Wealth Administration are distinct, impartial divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Funding Institute is a completely owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Financial institution