5 huge analyst AI strikes: Nvidia nonetheless prime choose into 2025; MU, ORCL downgraded

Investing.com — Listed here are the largest analyst strikes within the space of synthetic intelligence (AI) for this week.

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Nvidia inventory stays prime choose for 2025: MS

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reaffirmed Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) as a prime inventory choose for 2025, sustaining its Obese score and a worth goal of $166.

Regardless of some near-term headwinds, together with a slowdown in Hopper builds and staggered Blackwell product readiness, Morgan Stanley views these challenges as short-term.

By the second half of 2025, the energy of Blackwell will likely be “the one matter,” the agency’s analysts careworn.

Addressing aggressive pressures from ASIC options, significantly from Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Morgan Stanley believes buying traits will favor GPUs over time.

“Whereas our forecasts for each AVGO/MRVL ASIC income are largely conservative, as are our forecasts for GPU, we consider that GPU will meaningfully outperform ASIC this 12 months,” analysts famous.

The report additionally highlights Nvidia’s $12 billion annual R&D investments as vital for sustaining its management in AI {hardware} and system-level improvements.

Analysts additionally addressed the issues over business challenges, together with scaling Synthetic Common Intelligence (AGI) clusters.

Whereas technologists advocate for bigger AGI techniques, monetary backers stay cautious about return on funding (ROI). Nvidia’s improvements, akin to Mellanox (NASDAQ:MLNX) and NV-Hyperlink, are positioned to enhance effectivity on this space.

Nvidia’s development drivers—together with inference, sovereign AI coaching, and enterprise purposes—account for 70% of its knowledge middle income. Analysts consider these segments will proceed driving development even amid potential business consolidation by 2026. “Even with some consolidation within the arms race, we should always nonetheless see enduring development potential,” they commented.

The upcoming Shopper Electronics Present (CES) in January 2025 is predicted to spice up sentiment for Nvidia. Analysts anticipate the messaging will emphasize robust Blackwell demand, albeit with provide constraints.

“However by mid 12 months we stay comfy that the main target will stay on Blackwell which would be the driving drive behind income in 2h, probably unlocking extra important upside,” the observe concluded.

Tesla inventory stays the “narrative king”, Barclays says

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has skilled a unprecedented rally for the reason that U.S. election, solidifying its standing because the market’s “narrative king,” based on analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC).

The electrical car (EV) maker’s shares have surged roughly 90%, including about $730 billion to its market capitalization – a feat matched solely by a number of tech giants like Nvidia and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).

Barclays notes that this efficiency is especially exceptional given the inventory’s obvious disconnect from underlying fundamentals. Tesla’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has soared from 80x earlier than the election to an elevated 145x based mostly on 2025 consensus EPS estimates.

“The decoupling from fundamentals in some ways mirrors the rally we noticed from Tesla in 2020-21,” analysts led by Dan Levy stated in a observe.

They attribute this rally to the “magnification of Tesla’s narrative command,” which facilities round themes like autonomous automobiles (AV) and AI.

One other issue contributing to the surge is the “Tesla-financial complicated,” the place choices exercise amplifies inventory actions. Furthermore, retail investor curiosity stays sturdy, with 30% of Tesla’s excellent shares held by particular person buyers, based on Barclays.

“Tesla stays the ‘OG meme inventory,’” the analysts emphasised.

Barclays additionally identified the expansion of the “Elon premium” in Tesla’s valuation. The elevated prominence of CEO Elon Musk has elevated curiosity within the firm, translating to heightened enthusiasm for Tesla’s inventory.

Micron downgraded at BofA after disappointing steering

Financial institution of America (BofA) downgraded Micron Know-how (NASDAQ:MU) to Impartial from Purchase, citing a weaker-than-anticipated gross margin (GM) outlook for the second and third fiscal quarters.

Shares of the chipmaker fell sharply Thursday after delivering disappointing Q2 steering. Micron initiatives second-quarter income of roughly $7.9 billion, lacking each BofA’s $8.3 billion estimate and the consensus forecast of $9 billion. The corporate additionally expects a Q2 GM of 38.5%, beneath BofA’s 40% estimate and the consensus of 41%.

“Knowledge middle and HBM traits stay robust however weak point in PC and telephone markets are placing downward stress on reminiscence pricing, particularly in NAND,” BofA analysts led by Vivek Arya famous. Persistent pricing challenges in NAND are anticipated to increase into the third quarter.

Though BofA stays optimistic about Micron’s place in high-bandwidth reminiscence (HBM) and AI markets, it lowered its fiscal 2025 and 2026 professional forma earnings per share estimates by 5% and 11%, respectively, to $6.80 and $8.78. The inventory’s worth goal was additionally lower to $110 from $125.

“Traditionally the inventory has struggled to outperform when GM growth has remained muted, resulting in our inventory downgrade to Impartial from Purchase, though we nonetheless really feel constructive about MU’s place within the HBM/AI market the place TAM was taken up +20% for CY25 to $30bn.”

Whereas knowledge middle and HBM traits are highlighted as robust, the weak point in PC and telephone markets continues to weigh on reminiscence pricing, significantly NAND. BofA does, nonetheless, see potential for restoration in these markets within the latter half of 2025.

Oracle earns a downgrade on valuation, capex issues

Monness, Crespi, and Hardt downgraded Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) inventory to Promote from Impartial, setting a 12-month worth goal of $130, implying over 22% upside from the present ranges.

The agency raised issues about Oracle’s valuation, rising competitors, and aggressive capital expenditure (capex) plans.

Oracle shares have climbed 60% year-to-date, largely pushed by generative AI enthusiasm, marking their finest efficiency since 1999. Nonetheless, Monness analysts warned that “valuation is stretched, competitors fierce, software program in transition, and the macro setting fragile.”

Oracle’s current Q2 earnings highlighted development challenges, the agency famous. Its FY25 EPS estimate of $6.17 stays unchanged, whereas its FY25 Cloud Providers income projection has been revised to $24.9 billion, down from final 12 months’s $25.4 billion forecast.

Monness expressed specific concern over Oracle’s “daring capex plans,” with spending anticipated to double in FY25.

“Our present FY:25 capex projection of $14.2 billion represents 24.6% of income, up from 13% in FY:24, and properly above the 27-year common of 4%,” the analysts wrote.

They argue this degree of expenditure is unsustainable, dragging Oracle’s free money movement (FCF) margin to an estimated 8% for FY25, far beneath its historic common of 28%.

The agency additionally pointed to Oracle’s closely leveraged stability sheet, with $88.6 billion in debt and a debt-to-capital ratio of 86%. This restricts the corporate’s potential to spice up shareholder returns by means of dividends or buybacks and limits its capability for acquisitions or broader natural development investments.

Whereas Oracle has seen early success in generative AI, Monness cautioned that “an inevitable shakeout within the LLM business” and intensifying competitors from main cloud suppliers may pose important dangers.

‘In AI we belief:’ BofA says, highlights 6 chip shares for 2025

Financial institution of America outlined its 2025 semiconductor outlook on Monday, spotlighting six chip shares it recommends for buyers within the coming 12 months.

The financial institution forecasts a 15% improve in semiconductor business gross sales to $725 billion in 2025. This development, though sturdy, is projected to be slower in comparison with the 20% development seen within the present 12 months.

BofA anticipates reminiscence gross sales to rise by 20% in 2025, following a 79% year-over-year improve in 2024, with core semiconductors, excluding reminiscence, anticipated to develop by 13%.

“We see 2025 as a 12 months of two completely different traits. Within the first half, AI investments and NVDA Blackwell deployments pushed by US cloud clients maintain momentum in AI semis,” analysts led by Vivek Arya stated in a observe.

“Nonetheless, within the 2H (second half), curiosity may shift to less-crowded auto/industrial chipmakers on stock replenishment and pick-up in auto manufacturing assuming a worldwide financial restoration.”

BofA’s prime picks embody leaders in AI akin to Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell Know-how.

“In AI we proceed to belief.. at the very least until 2H25,” analysts stated.

Moreover, the agency recognized Lam Analysis (NASDAQ:LRCX) as a flash-memory device chief poised for capital expenditure restoration and affect decision in China.

Auto and EV chief ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) is highlighted for its potential cyclical restoration within the second half of 2025, and Cadence Design (NASDAQ:CDNS) Programs famous for its resilient double-digit development, particularly because the AI {hardware} cycle decelerates within the latter half of the 12 months.