Analysts, enterprise leaders react to Trump’s menace of North American tariffs

By Sarah Morland

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Monetary analysts and enterprise leaders on Tuesday reacted to a menace from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on prime commerce companions Mexico and Canada when he takes workplace for a second time period in January in a transfer that would set off a commerce struggle.

Mexico is the nation’s prime commerce accomplice as of September, representing 15.8% of complete commerce, adopted by Canada at 13.9%. 

Trump additionally threatened “a further 10% tariff, above any extra tariffs” on imports from China, the third-largest commerce accomplice at 11.9%.

CAPITAL ECONOMICS

“We suspect buyers could also be under-appreciating the influence from Trump’s insurance policies on Mexico,” stated Giulia Bellicoso, a markets economist. “We suspect Trump’s tariffs will take a toll on Mexican equities by denting optimism about nearshoring and limiting funding into the nation.”

“We anticipate Trump to start out one other commerce struggle,” she added.

MEXICAN EMPLOYERS’ CONFEDERATION, COPARMEX

“I feel that greater than something, it is a approach for Trump to kick off negotiations that favor his nation,” stated Mario Cepeda, who heads Coparmex’s chapter in Juarez. “Keep in mind, regardless that we’re neighbors, we’re not pals.”

“On the finish of the day he is searching for his pursuits, and we needs to be doing the identical.”

CIBANCO

“We consider Trump’s announcement is a tactic to barter with these three international locations, his fundamental commerce companions, from a place of energy, making an allowance for that imposing tariffs would even be destructive for the U.S. financial system,” CIBanco stated in a observe.

“As such the ultimate results of the tariff menace might be much less extreme as soon as negotiations with the respective events conclude.”

BORDER BUSINESS BLOC

“There are a variety of issues up within the air, there’s a variety of uncertainty,” stated Jesus Manuel Salyandia, who heads the Border Enterprise Bloc out of Juarez, which borders El Paso, Texas. “Industrially talking, the financial system will sluggish.”

Trump’s rhetoric, from the tariff threats to his promised migration crackdown, “aren’t serving to us a lot when it comes to investments that would in any other case arrive right here,” Salyandia added.

BANCO BASE

“The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Settlement (USMCA) shall be reviewed in July 2026, which is predicted to lift danger aversion particularly in Mexico, as each U.S. and Canadian officers have talked about that they might be higher off with bilateral agreements,” Banco BASE stated.

It added that the tariff menace “raises the chance that Trump’s second time period shall be extra radical, which represents a danger for Mexico’s export sector.”

“Trump’s menace implies that he might sacrifice the U.S. financial system within the brief time period so as to curb the immigration and drug crises,” the group’s director of financial evaluation, Gabriela Siller, added on X.

ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN

“As in earlier situations of tariff threats, the alternate charge will play its position as a shock absorber reflecting the dangers stemming from a persistent change within the industrial relationship,” stated Armando Armenta, a senior economist on the asset supervisor.

“Nevertheless, commerce linkages amongst USMCA members run deep, and a cooperation settlement on the management of unlawful drug trafficking, labor migration, border safety and items commerce might shortly reverse the transfer.”

MOODY’S ANALYTICS

“The Mexican financial system shall be one of the uncovered to destructive results from the financial insurance policies of U.S. President Trump,” stated Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) Analytics, predicting decrease progress notably within the subsequent two years as funding, remittances and the finance sector might all be shaken by the volatility.

It stated it was reducing its forecast for Mexico’s gross home product (GDP) progress subsequent yr to 0.6% from a previous expectation of round 1%, and that it now predicts progress of round 1.6% in 2026 in comparison with a previous estimate of two.5%.

BANORTE

Economists at Mexican financial institution Banorte warned about “warning amongst buyers as elevated commerce and political tensions between the U.S. and different international locations loom on the horizon.”

VECTOR ANALISIS 

Trump’s tariff threats in opposition to Mexico, Canada and China “might violate free-trade agreements and have an effect on the three economies,” Vector Analisis stated in a publish to social media.