Factbox-Brokerages see ‘unsure’ 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

(Reuters) -Uncertainties round U.S. insurance policies might sluggish world financial development modestly in 2025, in response to main brokerages. They anticipate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to gas volatility throughout world markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in flip, limiting the scope for main central banks to ease financial coverage.

World economies and fairness markets have had a strong 12 months, with world development anticipated to common 3.1% this 12 months, a Reuters ballot revealed in October confirmed.

Following are forecasts from some prime banks on financial development, inflation and the efficiency of main asset lessons in 2025:

Forecasts for shares, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

goal yield goal

UBS World 6400 3.80% 1.04 157.0 7.60

Analysis

Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(subsequent 159(subsequent 7.50(subsequent

12-months) 12-months 12-months)

)

UBS World 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Administration

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Funding

Institute

Societe

Generale 4.50% (This autumn’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Deutsche Financial institution (ETR:DBKGn) 7000 4.7% (This autumn’25) 1.03 (This autumn’25)

Nomura 135 6.93

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 6500

3.55% (This autumn’25) 1.10 (This autumn’25) 138 7.60

(This autumn’25) (This autumn’25)

J.P.Morgan 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50

6500

BofA World 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Analysis

Wells Fargo 4.00%

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jefferies 6000

Barclays (LON:BARC) 6600

Piper Sandler 6600

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20

BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 3.65% (This autumn’25) 1.15 (This autumn’25) 131

(This autumn’25)

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.4%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (This autumn/This autumn)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Financial institution 2.6% 2.6% (This autumn/This autumn)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Funding

Institute

UBS World 2.6%

Wealth

Administration

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 2.1 (This autumn’25) 2.3 (This autumn’25)

BofA World 2.4%

Analysis

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Actual GDP Development:

Actual GDP development forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS World 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Analysis FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.3% 6.3%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

UBS World Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Administration

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

3.3%

Citigroup 1.1% 1.0%

Nomura 4.0% 6.9%

BofA World 3.3% 2.4% 4.5% 1.1%

Analysis

Deutsche Financial institution 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.5%

Funding

Institute

Berenberg

2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 6.5%

BNP Paribas

2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

* UBS World Analysis and UBS World Wealth Administration are distinct, unbiased divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Funding Institute is a completely owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Financial institution