Factbox-Brokerages see ‘unsure’ 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

(Reuters) -Uncertainties round U.S. insurance policies could gradual international financial development modestly in 2025, in keeping with main brokerages. They count on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to gas volatility throughout international markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in flip, limiting the scope for main central banks to ease financial coverage.

World economies and fairness markets have had a sturdy yr, with international development anticipated to common 3.1% this yr, a Reuters ballot revealed in October confirmed.

Following are forecasts from some high banks on financial development, inflation and the efficiency of main asset lessons in 2025:

Forecasts for shares, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

goal yield goal

UBS International 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60

Analysis

Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(subsequent 159(subsequent 7.50(subsequent

12-months) 12-months 12-months)

)

UBS International 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Administration

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Funding

Institute

Societe 4.50% (This autumn’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Generale 6750

Deutsche Financial institution (ETR:DBKGn) 7000 4.7% (This autumn’25) 1.03 (This autumn’25) 7.50

Nomura 135 6.93

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 6500 3.55% (This autumn’25) 1.10 (This autumn’25) 138 7.60

(This autumn’25) (This autumn’25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50

BofA International 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Analysis

Wells Fargo 4.00%

0.98 (This autumn’25) 154 7.60

(This autumn’25) (This autumn’25)

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jefferies 6000

4.43%

Barclays (LON:BARC) 6600

4.25%

Piper Sandler 6600

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20

BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 3.65% (This autumn’25) 1.15 (This autumn’25) 131

(This autumn’25)

Canaccord 6325

Genuity

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 6500 4.20% (This autumn’25)

ING 1.02 160 7.35

6700

HSBC

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (This autumn/This autumn)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Financial institution 2.8% (This autumn/This autumn) 2.6% (This autumn/This autumn)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Funding

Institute

UBS International 2.6%

Wealth

Administration

Citigroup 2.1 (This autumn’25) 2.3 (This autumn’25)

BofA International 2.4%

Analysis

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Nomura 2.8%

ING

2.4%

Wells Fargo 2.6%

2.5%

Jefferies 2.3%

Actual GDP Progress:

Actual GDP development forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS International 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Analysis FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.2% 6.3%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

UBS International Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Administration

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Citigroup 1.1% 1.0%

2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 6.7%

Nomura 2.2 4.0% 0.8 1.0 5.8%

BofA International 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% 0.9%

Analysis

Deutsche Financial institution 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.5%

Funding

Institute

Berenberg 2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 6.5%

BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

Peel

Hunt 1.9% 4.4% 1.3% 1.6% 7.0%

ING 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%

2.0%

2.4%

Jefferies (This autumn/This autumn)

* UBS International Analysis and UBS International Wealth Administration are distinct, unbiased divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Funding Institute is an entirely owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Financial institution