Cuba predicts 1% progress in 2025 after dismal yr, economic system minister says

HAVANA (Reuters) – Cuban Economic system Minister Joaquín Alonso Vázquez on Monday forecast the Caribbean island’s economic system would develop only one% in 2025 after a dismal yr marked by one of many nation’s worst vitality disaster in many years.

The minister, chatting with a closed-door session of a parliament fee, didn’t present an estimate for Gross Home Product (GDP) this yr, although latest hints by officers counsel it might have contracted once more after falling 1.9% in 2023.

The Communist-run nation blames U.S. sanctions and a lingering hangover from the COVID-19 pandemic for a despair that has left giant swaths of the inhabitants and economic system going through day by day energy outages, double-digit inflation and shortages of primary items, water and gasoline.

Cuba initially forecast 2% progress this yr after a decline of practically 12% since 2019, however the disaster deepened month-by-month in 2024 as day by day energy outages throughout a lot of the nation usually span for 12 or extra hours.

“This yr was so severe … the facility outages have created a vital scenario the place business is paralyzed,” Cuban economist Omar Everleny mentioned.

Everleny informed Reuters he estimated the expansion would plunge 4% this yr, on high of final yr’s dismal close to 2 % contraction.

Cuba’s economic system minister mentioned export earnings fell $900 million, 10% wanting the federal government’s plans, whereas imports have been 18% lower than forecast. Agriculture, tourism, metal and sugar manufacturing all carried out properly wanting expectations.

The Nationwide Statistics Workplace reported freight site visitors, key indicator of financial exercise, was down 18% by September, in contrast with an analogous interval final yr.