Investing.com — The greenback has surged previous its post-2022 vary, buoyed by U.S. financial exceptionalism, a widening rate of interest hole, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for additional beneficial properties subsequent yr.
“Our base case is that the greenback will make some additional headway subsequent yr because the US continues to outperform, the rate of interest hole between the US and different G10 economies widens a bit additional, and the Trump administration brings in greater US tariffs,” Capital Economics stated in a current notice.
The bullish outlook on the dollar comes within the wake of the greenback breaking above its post-2022 buying and selling vary, reflecting renewed confidence amongst traders pushed by strong U.S. financial information and coverage expectations.
A key danger to the upside name on the greenback is a possible financial rebound in the remainder of the world, much like what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics famous.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, financial exercise in the remainder of the world rebounded, whereas Trump’s tax cuts did not materialize till the top of 2017, and the Fed took a extra dovish path than discounted, leading to a 10% drop within the DXY on the yr, which was its “worst calendar yr efficiency up to now twenty years,” it added.
Whereas expectations for a restoration in Europe and Asia appear far off, a constructive shock for world progress “ought to be dominated out”, Capital Economics stated.
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