Tesla inventory: This autumn deliveries preview

Investing.com — UBS mentioned in a be aware Monday that it expects Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to announce its This autumn 2024 supply numbers on January 2, with the financial institution’s analysts forecasting roughly 510,000 items, reflecting a 5% year-over-year and 10% quarter-over-quarter enhance. 

UBS’s estimate is barely beneath the Seen Alpha consensus of 512,000 however aligns with investor expectations, which vary between 500,000 and 510,000.

“Given the AI-driven narrative on the inventory, we do not imagine the supply outcomes will likely be as significant as up to now,” UBS analysts famous, emphasizing the diminished affect of supply figures on Tesla’s inventory efficiency in comparison with earlier intervals.

Tesla’s vitality storage phase additionally warrants consideration, with UBS projecting deployments of 9.1 GWh for the quarter, a 32% sequential enhance. 

The financial institution notes that the estimate aligns intently with Seen Alpha’s 9.6 GWh projection. Nonetheless, UBS cautioned that “vitality storage deployments are lumpy,” making predictions much less exact.

Following the supply report, the main target will shift to Tesla’s earnings name on the finish of January. 

UBS highlighted that investor consideration is prone to middle on Elon Musk’s commentary, particularly concerning 2025 steering and AI developments, relatively than purely monetary metrics.

For 2025, Tesla has indicated a goal of 20-30% unit development, translating to 2.2-2.4 million items, which exceeds UBS and consensus forecasts of 1.9 and a couple of.0 million, respectively. 

The financial institution says new fashions, together with a lower-priced car anticipated early within the 12 months and a refreshed Mannequin Y, may drive these numbers.

UBS states that regional tendencies present diversified efficiency: regular development in China bolstered by promotions, softness in Europe as a result of slowed exports, and flat deliveries within the U.S. 

The financial institution famous potential EV tax credit score adjustments as an element influencing near-term U.S. demand.