Investing.com — Wolfe Analysis not too long ago outlined 5 potential surprises for 2025 together with a doable Fed pivot that might shake up markets.
1. Port staff strike: a doable port staff strike on Jan. 15 — stemming from unresolved points relating to automation in port operations — disrupting provide chains and doubtlessly impacting GDP by roughly $3.1 billion per day.
2. Downward revisions to payrolls might drive Fed pivot: The upcoming benchmark revisions may reveal a downward adjustment of round 68,000 jobs per 30 days, indicating a slowing job development price which will immediate a dovish pivot from the Fed.
3. Shake up on the Fed: The potential resignation of Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr may result in vital adjustments in management, with Governor Michelle Bowman poised to take over his function and Kevin Warsh doubtlessly being appointed as a brand new governor.
4. Broadening out of inventory market rally unlikely: regardless of investor hopes for a broader market rally, focus throughout the index might persist, Wolfe Analysis mentioned. This development displays a longer-term sample the place the S&P 500 has outperformed the equal-weight index in seven of the final ten years.
5. President-elect Trump might go for much less harsh tariffs: after preliminary market reactions to tariff headlines, Trump may finish his pursuit of great tariffs. This is able to defy widespread investor expectations, as many anticipate elevated tariffs on Chinese language items and others.
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