2025 Power outlook: Jefferies lists 10 key questions

Investing.com — Of their ‘2025 Power outlook’ report issued Thursday, Jefferies analysts highlighted ten vital questions shaping the worldwide vitality panorama, pushed by coverage shifts, market dynamics, and geopolitical components.

“2024 was a rollercoaster yr for vitality, with vital dispersion being the group’s defining attribute,” analysts led by Lloyd Byrne mentioned within the word. “We imagine 2025 shall be comparable, with US deregulation and international demand progress being major drivers of sub-sector efficiency.”

1) ‘Can the “Trump Commerce” Proceed?:’ Jefferies notes that buyers anticipate advantages for pure fuel (natgas) and LNG from “demand pull” beneath the brand new administration. “Drill Child Drill” will possible have restricted affect as shale matures and operators deal with returns.

The outlook stays bullish for natgas infrastructure as improved allowing and growth may drive progress.

“The deregulatory push is finally optimistic for the basics of North American pure fuel, in our view,” analysts famous. “Buyers proceed to inquire about upstream, companies, and midstream choices to contemplate.”

2) ‘North American Pure Fuel – Volatility, LNG & Demand Facilities:’ LNG demand is anticipated to tighten fuel storage heading into winter 2025-26. Jefferies foresees infrastructure bottlenecks creating value dislocations as demand outpaces provide. Appalachia and Haynesville are positioned to learn as demand for energy and information facilities grows.

3) ‘World Oil Macro (BCBA:BMAm): Non-OPEC Provide, Politics & Iran vs Demand:’ Jefferies initiatives non-OPEC+ provide progress in 2025 will match international demand progress.

China and India are forecast to contribute considerably to demand. Nevertheless, geopolitical dangers round Iran may disrupt markets, with potential U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports affecting provide.

“Any lower in Iranian exports is prone to be compensated by a rise in OPEC+ provide, partly assuaging the spare capability overhang,” analysts added.

4) ‘US Oil’s Future Function: Shale Maturity or Development?:’ Oil sentiment is “as unfavorable as ever” primarily based on CFTC positioning.
Whereas oversupply stays a priority, Jefferies sees potential stabilization if Iranian barrels are faraway from the market. U.S. manufacturing progress is slowing, with the main focus shifting to shareholder returns.

5) ‘LNG’s Outlook: Oversupply Thesis Pushed to the Proper?:’ In response to Jefferies’ report, LNG balances are tightening as a consequence of venture delays and higher-than-expected demand.

The funding financial institution highlights the potential for elevated costs, pushed by European and Asian fuel demand. Publish-2025, extra provide from the U.S., Qatar, and Canada may ease the market.

6) ‘World Refining S&D: What Occurred to Larger Mid-Cycle?:’ Jefferies expects international refining provide and demand (S&D) to tighten marginally within the second half of 2025. Capability closures throughout Asia Pacific will offset additions, resulting in tighter clear product balances.

7) ‘Power M&A: What Inning Are We In?:’ Consolidation inside the E&P sector continues, with room for additional exercise. Jefferies sees alternatives for midstream and oilfield companies to observe swimsuit, pushed by capital optimization and mature basin restructuring.

8) ‘Midstream: Nonetheless A number of Curiosity – Stays a Protected Haven?:’ Midstream stays a defensive play, with robust quantity progress from LNG and energy demand. Jefferies highlights infrastructure initiatives in key basins like Permian and Appalachia as drivers for sustained curiosity within the sector.

“We count on midstream to proceed to draw investor consideration as solution to spend money on quantity progress whereas limiting publicity to entrance month value volatility as a consequence of restricted North American storage as manufacturing continues to rise,” Jefferies analysts emphasised.

9) ‘Delivery: Will the US Implement Iran Sanctions Extra Strictly?:’ Jefferies flags the U.S. “shadow fleet” sanctions as a key challenge. Tighter enforcement may take away tankers from the market, boosting spot charges and utilization.

“Ought to the 85 Very Giant Crude Carriers (VLCCs) on the watchlist be faraway from the market beneath stricter enforcement, we may see total tanker utilization soar from 85% to 95%, inflicting a soar in spot charges for VLCCs and tankers total,” the report states.

10) ‘Worldwide Capex – Will It Meet Expectations?:’ Offshore capex is forecast to rise in 2025, albeit at a slower tempo. Investor considerations linger as progress decelerates, however Jefferies expects incremental will increase pushed by international vitality demand.