Brazil’s commerce surplus shrinks by almost 1 / 4 in 2024 on rising imports

By Marcela Ayres

BRASILIA (Reuters) -Brazil’s commerce surplus shrank by almost 25% in 2024 in comparison with the earlier 12 months, to $74.6 billion, official knowledge confirmed on Monday, pushed by increased imports as Latin America’s largest financial system outpaced preliminary development expectations.

The annual consequence adopted a $4.8 billion surplus in December, which exceeded a $3.9 billion forecast in a Reuters ballot of economists.

Regardless of the 24.6% drop from 2023, the 2024 commerce surplus was the second-largest since information started in 1989, trailing solely the $98.9 billion surplus achieved the earlier 12 months.

Exports remained largely flat, falling 0.8% from 2023 to $337 billion, impacted by decrease costs and volumes for key Brazilian commodities comparable to soybeans and corn, with iron ore additionally experiencing a year-over-year decline attributable to value elements.

These strikes overshadowed the rise in crude oil shipments, which turned Brazil’s prime export in 2024 – a place the federal government doesn’t count on to maintain shifting ahead.

“Because the agricultural harvest recovers, it’s probably that soybeans will regain the highest spot, particularly as soybean costs start to rebound,” mentioned Herlon Brandao, director of Statistics and Overseas Commerce Research on the Ministry of Improvement, Business, Commerce, and Companies.

Conversely, Brazilian imports rose 9% in 2024 over the earlier 12 months, to $262.5 billion, buoyed by robust home demand and elevated investments, significantly within the acquisition of capital items.

Financial exercise persistently outperformed expectations all year long, with the federal government estimating gross home product development of three.5% for 2024.

For 2025, the commerce surplus is projected to vary between $60 billion and $80 billion, in keeping with the Ministry of Improvement, Business, Commerce, and Companies.

With the worldwide concentrate on the potential influence of tariffs promised by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Brazil’s Secretary of Overseas Commerce, Tatiana Prazeres, famous that whereas Brazil maintains a surplus in its general commerce stability, it continues to face a deficit with the US.

“Subsequently, beneath this criterion, Brazil shouldn’t be a major concern for the U.S. authorities,” she mentioned.

In keeping with Prazeres, Brazil will depend on its numerous mechanisms for dialogue with the U.S. to strengthen commerce ties within the coming years.