No Santa rally leaves S&P 500 susceptible in 2025, BofA says

Investing.com — The S&P 500 ended December 2024 down 2.5%, lacking its typical year-end Santa Claus rally.

Traditionally, this seven-day interval between late December and early January is bullish 79% of the time, with a mean return of 1.6%. However this 12 months, the index slipped 0.53%, signalling a riskier begin to 2025.

And not using a Santa rally, January turns into a possible weak spot. BofA famous that in years with out this rally, January has a 52% likelihood of being unfavourable, with a mean decline of 0.29%. A down January may set off a bearish “January Barometer,” which frequently predicts a troublesome 12 months for equities.

Key technical ranges are actually in focus. The SPX is testing help close to the 2024 Presidential election hole at 5864-5783. A breakdown may type a bearish head-and-shoulders sample, exposing help at 5700-5650. Nonetheless, breaking above resistance at 6017-6050 may negate the bearish outlook.

The lackluster begin to 2025 provides uncertainty for the primary half. Traditionally, and not using a Santa rally, the S&P 500 sees weaker first-quarter returns, averaging a 0.69% loss. The primary half fares barely higher, up 57% of the time however with negligible returns.

The market’s trajectory in January will set the tone for a risky 12 months, particularly as 2025 begins the Presidential Cycle, which historically carries blended outcomes.