China exports speed up amid commerce dangers, imports shock

By Ellen Zhang, Joe Money and Ethan Wang

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s exports gathered tempo in December, whereas imports recovered, closing out the 12 months on a optimistic observe because the world’s second-largest economic system braces for mounting commerce dangers with the incoming U.S. administration.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, set to return to the White Home subsequent week, has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese language items, sparking fears of a renewed commerce struggle between the 2 superpowers.

Including to the challenges, unresolved disputes with the European Union over tariffs of as much as 45.3% on Chinese language electrical automobiles threaten to hinder China’s ambitions to increase its auto exports.

“Commerce frontloading turned extra seen in December because of each Chinese language New 12 months results and Donald Trump’s inauguration,” mentioned Xu Tianchen, senior economist on the Economist Intelligence Unit. The competition runs from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4 this 12 months.

“Import progress might be underpinned by stockpiling of commodities like copper and iron ore, as a part of (China’s) ‘purchase low’ technique,” he added.

Outbound shipments in December rose 10.7% year-on-year, customs information confirmed on Monday, beating 7.3% progress forecast in a Reuters ballot of economists, and bettering from November’s 6.7% enhance.

Imports shocked to the upside with 1.0% progress, the strongest efficiency since July 2024. Economists had anticipated a 1.5% decline.

China’s commerce surplus grew to $104.8 billion final month, up from $97.4 billion in November.

A Chinese language customs spokesperson advised reporters there was nonetheless “large” room for the $18 trillion economic system’s imports to develop this 12 months.

Export momentum has been a important driver for China’s economic system, which stays weighed down by a protracted property market stoop and fragile shopper confidence.

There have been indicators, nonetheless, of stabilisation following China’s stimulus push in latest months.

Manufacturing facility exercise remained in modest growth for the third consecutive month, whereas companies and building recovered in December, an official survey confirmed.

South Korea, a key indicator of China’s imports, reported a 8.6% enhance in shipments to China in December, suggesting resilience in demand for know-how merchandise.

China’s iron ore imports in 2024 rose for a second straight 12 months to hit a brand new peak, as decrease costs spurred shopping for and demand remained resilient regardless of the nation’s protracted property disaster persevering with to weigh on metal demand.

The world’s largest agricultural importer additionally purchased a report quantity of soybeans final 12 months, after consumers involved about U.S.-China commerce tensions rushed to safe U.S. soybeans forward of incoming U.S. president Donald Trump’s inauguration.

However crude oil imports fell final 12 months, the info confirmed, marking its first annual decline within the final twenty years exterior the COVID-19 pandemic-induced falls, as tepid financial progress and peaking gas consumption dampened purchases.

China’s prime leaders have pledged to loosen financial coverage and undertake a extra proactive fiscal coverage in 2025, aiming to offset exterior pressures and revitalise home demand.

The federal government is concentrating on financial progress of round 5% for the 12 months, a aim that had proved difficult to realize at occasions in 2024.