JPY unlikely to outlive a CPI surprise-driven USD rally, BofA says

Investing.com — The yen has stood agency in opposition to latest greenback energy because the unload in markets sparked bids into the safe-haven forex, however ought to U.S. inflation knowledge later this week shock to the upside, this resilience is unlikely to outlive, methods from BofA World Analysis mentioned in a latest be aware.   

“If US CPI surprises to the upside this week, upward strain for USDJPY spot is prone to resume, as a result of pair’s excessive sensitivity to CPI surprises,” the strategists mentioned.

The Japanese yen has remained resilient in opposition to the greenback’s latest broad-based rally, supported by its standing as a risk-off hedge amid fairness pullbacks and the already elevated USDJPY spot stage, this might change with the upcoming U.S. Client Worth Index, or CPI, report, they added.

BofA’s expects core CPI print, which strips out meals and vitality, of 0.3% month-over-month, barely above the 0.2% consensus. The CPI is knowledge are slated for launch on Wednesday.

The financial institution’s pattern mannequin reveals a bullish continuation sign for the USDJPY spot uptrend, suggesting additional upside potential for the pair. Nonetheless, a draw back CPI shock and a hawkish speech from the Financial institution of Japan’s deputy governor Ryozo Himino this week are dangers to the bullish name on USD/JPY, the strategists mentioned.

Himino is anticipated to ship a speech Tuesday simply weeks earlier than the BoJ assembly on Jan. 23-24.