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(Reuters) -Uncertainties round U.S. insurance policies could gradual international financial progress modestly in 2025, based on main brokerages. They anticipate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to gas volatility throughout international markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in flip, limiting the scope for main central banks to ease financial coverage.
Following are forecasts from some prime banks on financial progress, inflation and the efficiency of main asset lessons in 2025:
Forecasts for shares, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/CNY
goal yield goal
UBS World 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60
Analysis
Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(subsequent 159(subsequent 7.50(subsequent
12-months) 12-months) 12-months)
UBS World 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50
Wealth
Administration
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162
Funding
Institute
Societe 6750 4.50% (This autumn’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28
Generale
Deutsche Financial institution (ETR:DBKGn) 7000 4.7% (This autumn’25) 1.03 (This autumn’25) 7.50
Nomura 4.25% 1.03 135 6.93
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 6500 3.55% (This autumn’25) 1.10 (This autumn’25) 138 (This autumn’25) 7.60
(This autumn’25)
J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50
BofA World 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40
Analysis
Wells Fargo 4.00% 0.98 (This autumn’25) 154 (This autumn’25) 7.60
(This autumn’25)
BMO Capital 6700
Markets
Jefferies 6000 4.43%
Barclays (LON:BARC) 6600 4.25%
Piper Sandler 6600
Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140
7.30
BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 3.65% (This autumn’25) 1.15 (This autumn’25) 131 (This autumn’25)
Canaccord 6325
Genuity
Citigroup (NYSE:C) 6500 4.20% (This autumn’25)
ING 1.02 160 7.35
HSBC 6700
Evercore ISI 6800
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%
Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (This autumn/This autumn)
Barclays 2.5%
2.6%
Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%
Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 2.3% 2.5%
Deutsche Financial institution 2.8% (This autumn/This autumn) 2.6% (This autumn/This autumn)
Wells Fargo 3.3%
Funding
Institute
UBS World 2.6%
Wealth
Administration
Citigroup 2.5% 2.5%
BofA World 2.3% (This autumn/This autumn)
Analysis 2.8%
Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%
BNP Paribas 2.3%
Nomura 3.0% 2.7%
ING 2.4%
Wells Fargo 2.6%
Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%
UBS World 2.5%
Analysis
Actual GDP Development:
Actual GDP progress forecasts for 2025
Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA
UBS World 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for
Analysis FY 26)
Goldman Sachs 2.7% 4.5% 0.8% 6.3%
2.4% 0.9%
Barclays 3.0% 4%
2.3% 0.8% 0.9% 7.1%
Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%
(FY25/FY2
6)
J.P.Morgan 2.4% 3.9% 0.8% 6.0%
2.4% 0.7%
UBS World Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%
Administration
Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%
Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%
Citigroup 2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 1.0% 6.7%
Nomura 2.9% 2.2 4.0% 1.1% 1.0% 5.8%
BofA World 3.2% 2.4% 0.9% 7.0%
Analysis 4.9% 1.4%
Deutsche Financial institution 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%
Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%
Funding
Institute
Berenberg 2.6% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.3% 6.5%
BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%
(March
2026)
Peel Hunt
2.0% 4.5% 1.1% 1.4% 6.8%
ING 2.0% 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%
Jefferies 2.4%
(This autumn/This autumn)
* UBS World Analysis and UBS World Wealth Administration are distinct, impartial divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Funding Institute is an entirely owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Financial institution
