Factbox-Brokerages see unsure 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

(Reuters) -Uncertainties round U.S. insurance policies could gradual international financial progress modestly in 2025, based on main brokerages. They anticipate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to gas volatility throughout international markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in flip, limiting the scope for main central banks to ease financial coverage.

Following are forecasts from some prime banks on financial progress, inflation and the efficiency of main asset lessons in 2025:

Forecasts for shares, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/CNY

goal yield goal

USD/JPY

UBS World 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60

Analysis

Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(subsequent 159(subsequent 7.50(subsequent

12-months) 12-months) 12-months)

UBS World 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Administration

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Funding

Institute

Societe 6750 4.50% (This autumn’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Generale

Deutsche Financial institution (ETR:DBKGn) 7000 4.7% (This autumn’25) 1.03 (This autumn’25) 7.50

Nomura 4.25% 1.03 135 6.93

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 6500 3.55% (This autumn’25) 1.10 (This autumn’25) 138 (This autumn’25) 7.60

(This autumn’25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50

BofA World 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Analysis

Wells Fargo 4.00% 0.98 (This autumn’25) 154 (This autumn’25) 7.60

(This autumn’25)

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jefferies 6000 4.43%

Barclays (LON:BARC) 6600 4.25%

Piper Sandler 6600

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140

7.30

BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 3.65% (This autumn’25) 1.15 (This autumn’25) 131 (This autumn’25)

Canaccord 6325

Genuity

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 6500 4.20% (This autumn’25)

ING 1.02 160 7.35

HSBC 6700

Evercore ISI 6800

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (This autumn/This autumn)

Barclays 2.5%

2.6%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Financial institution 2.8% (This autumn/This autumn) 2.6% (This autumn/This autumn)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Funding

Institute

UBS World 2.6%

Wealth

Administration

Citigroup 2.5% 2.5%

BofA World 2.3% (This autumn/This autumn)

Analysis 2.8%

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Nomura 3.0% 2.7%

ING 2.4%

Wells Fargo 2.6%

Jefferies 2.3% 2.5%

UBS World 2.5%

Analysis

Actual GDP Development:

Actual GDP progress forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS World 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Analysis FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 4.5% 0.8% 6.3%

2.4% 0.9%

Barclays 3.0% 4%

2.3% 0.8% 0.9% 7.1%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 3.9% 0.8% 6.0%

2.4% 0.7%

UBS World Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Administration

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Citigroup 2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 1.0% 6.7%

Nomura 2.9% 2.2 4.0% 1.1% 1.0% 5.8%

BofA World 3.2% 2.4% 0.9% 7.0%

Analysis 4.9% 1.4%

Deutsche Financial institution 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Funding

Institute

Berenberg 2.6% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.3% 6.5%

BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

Peel Hunt

2.0% 4.5% 1.1% 1.4% 6.8%

ING 2.0% 4.6% 0.7% 1.4%

Jefferies 2.4%

(This autumn/This autumn)

* UBS World Analysis and UBS World Wealth Administration are distinct, impartial divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Funding Institute is an entirely owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Financial institution