Argentina’s Milei set to clinch commerce surplus file on grains, power exports

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina doubtless logged the most important commerce surplus in its historical past in 2024, a Reuters analyst ballot launched on Friday confirmed, on the again of libertarian President Javier Milei’s bid to spice up grains and power exports in his first full yr in workplace.

Milei, who has been president since December 2023, vowed to make Argentina a internet power exporter utilizing the huge shale reserves within the Patagonian Vaca Muerta area. Grains exports, aided by some easing of foreign money controls and higher climate, additionally rose.

Argentina is the world’s high exporter of processed soy oil and meal, the third largest for corn and an essential wheat and beef producer. It has main lithium reserves wanted for electrical batteries, in addition to shale gasoline and oil.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast the year-end commerce surplus between $18 billion and $19 billion, blowing previous the earlier file of $16.89 billion set in 2009.

The December month-to-month knowledge, set to be printed by the nationwide statistics company on Monday, was estimated to be a $921 million surplus, based on the median of the Reuters ballot.

From January to November, Argentina logged a $17.20 billion commerce surplus, official knowledge present, turning across the $7.94 billion commerce deficit within the first 11 months of 2023.

TRADE SURPLUS LIKELY TO NARROW IN 2025

Milei’s drive to show Argentina’s economic system round by means of an austerity push has additionally introduced inflation down to shut the yr at 117.8%, after an April peak of practically 300%.

Analysts say Argentina’s commerce surplus is more likely to slim.

“From right here on out, we’ll doubtless see a situation wherein imports develop significantly,” mentioned Federico Gonzalez, an economist at Empiria Consultores.

Imports have already begun to tick up because the Argentine peso has strengthened towards different regional currencies, such because the Brazilian actual, and because the Milei administration has lifted some taxes on sure items.

The federal government this week introduced plans to raise anti-dumping restrictions on imports to carry down costs on items reminiscent of family home equipment.

“In 2025 we may even see the commerce steadiness are available at simply 40% of the 2024 surplus,” mentioned Milagros Suardi, economist at consulting agency Eco Go. “That may include a restoration in imports, in addition to an financial restoration and improved trade price.”