UBS lifts GBP/USD forecast; “Truss second” fears overdone

Investing.com – Sterling has struggled of late, weighed by considerations surrounding the UK’s monetary place. UBS sees the potential for additional losses close to time period, however thinks the fiscal considerations are undone and beneficial properties are doubtless later within the 12 months.

At 06:15 ET (11:15 GMT), GBP/USD rose 0.2% to $1.2201, however has dropped over 3% over the past month within the wake of the UK gilts turmoil as yields soared. 

The current rise in UK gilt yields has been in contrast within the media with the “Truss second”, when Liz Truss grew to become the UK’s shortest-serving PM as she was compelled to resign after simply 49 days in workplace when borrowing prices soared within the aftermath of her authorities’s mini-budget. 

Nonetheless, UBS maintains that comparisons to the 2022 “Truss saga” are overdone.

“We don’t anticipate the current market wobbles within the UK to end in a scenario corresponding to the 2022 turmoil. Pension laws are in a greater place and policymakers are (hopefully) effectively conscious of the dangers,” analysts on the Swiss financial institution added, in a notice dated Jan. 17.

With main dangers lined up within the coming weeks that would push US yields even increased, the financial institution can not rule out GBP/USD breaking under $1.20.

Nonetheless, this isn’t our base case and whereas we like promoting EUR/GBP upside, we choose to stay on the sidelines in GBP/USD in the interim, as we’re significantly cautious of Trump inauguration dangers. 

“We anticipate GBP/USD to recuperate losses later within the 12 months as we see USD power waning, however it’s going to take a while and probably ache to get there,” UBS added.

The Swiss financial institution sees GBP/USD climbing to $1.29 by the 12 months’s finish.