Explainer-What Trump’s presidency might imply for Russia’s rouble

By Gleb Bryanski

MOSCOW (Reuters) – With Donald Trump’s pledge to shortly finish the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, market gamers are beginning to take a look at what influence that might have on the rouble, which grew to become an outcast following sanctions.

HOW HAS THE ROUBLE FARED IN RECENT MONTHS?

The rouble began the 12 months slumping to its weakest mark since March 2022 however has strengthened by about 10% since, turning into the very best performing forex throughout rising markets in 2025. 

Regardless of U.S. vitality sanctions imposed on Jan. 10, the forex is on monitor for its greatest month since emergency rate of interest hikes, capital controls and different measures shored it up within the wake of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.     

In 2024, it began strengthening in mid-April as army advances marked a change of tide in Russia’s favour and regardless of a decline in oil costs, Russia’s predominant export commodity.

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk area reversed that. Rouble losses accelerated in November when Washington slapped sanctions on Gazprombank which handles vitality export funds and served as the principle conduit for international forex receipts.

WHAT IMPACT COULD ANY TRUMP-PUTIN TALKS HAVE?

Some analysts count on some Western sanctions on Moscow could possibly be partially lifted ought to Trump maintain direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin – though even Trump’s advisers have acknowledged any decision to the conflict is unlikely to return instantly.       

Some count on a rally within the rouble pushed by funds for Russian exports and resumption of some international funding amid a possible gradual re-integration into the worldwide system. 

Others level to very large deferred demand for imports from industries comparable to aviation or energy technology, the place present wants for spare elements quantity to tens of billions of {dollars} which might ship the rouble right into a free fall.

Nevertheless, sanctions will possible largely keep till a sustainable decision to the conflict is discovered, which might take years.

WHAT IS THE VALUE OF THE ROUBLE? 

The rouble has been pushed by battlefield developments and sanctions slightly than macroeconomic fundamentals, making it difficult to calculate its truthful worth. 

Estimates are getting scarcer. Many worldwide analysts have stopped publishing rouble analysis and calculations.

The Moscow Inventory Trade (MOEX), Russia’s predominant FX buying and selling platform, and Russian banks have developed information merchandise for the home market. Some non-Russian banks proceed to produce rouble information to worldwide information providers. 

The central financial institution stated in a Jan. 17 report the actual efficient trade price, a measure used to approximate “truthful worth” of a forex, was 9% beneath its 10-year median. 

Russian enterprise leaders, together with Sberbank CEO German Gref and Financial institution VTB CEO Andrei Kostin have stated {that a} stage simply above 100 to the greenback is comfy for the financial system.

DOES THE ROUBLE BEHAVE LIKE OTHER EMERGING CURRENCIES?

Rouble strikes have been far more unpredictable since spring 2022. Market panic at first of the conflict noticed the forex plunge to 150 to the greenback. Russia sought to cease foreign exchange outflows, banning asset gross sales by international firms and imposing foreign exchange gross sales necessities on exporters. 

As imports shrank as a result of Western sanctions, creating an extra of foreign exchange, the rouble sharply strengthened to round 50 to the greenback in June 2022. It final traded at round 101.5 to the greenback.    

HOW DOES RUSSIA’S FOREX MARKET WORK UNDER SANCTIONS?

Greenback and euro trades moved to over-the-counter markets between banks after the U.S. sanctioned MOEX in June 2024.

China’s yuan grew to become essentially the most traded forex on MOEX and forex of selection for central financial institution interventions.

The central financial institution units official trade charges primarily based on interbank commerce information provided by lenders and – along with rouble/greenback futures buying and selling on MOEX – present the very best proxy for the over-the-counter market charges, in accordance with FX merchants.

Authorities say they’ll follow a floating trade price coverage.  

WHAT CAN BANKS AND COMPANIES STILL DO IN RUSSIA’S FX MARKET? 

Just below half of Russia’s 316 banks usually are not underneath sanctions and can purchase and promote {dollars} and euros. Subsidiaries of some main Western banks comparable to Italy’s UniCredit, Hungary’s OTP and Austria’s Raiffeisen Financial institution Worldwide are additionally working there. 

Home demand for {dollars} and euros comes from importing firms, since 15% of imports nonetheless come from Europe however the share of {dollars} and euros in international commerce is seen lowering.