Taiwan This fall GDP progress misses forecasts; Trump might cloud 2025 outlook

By Religion Hung and Jeanny Kao

TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan’s trade-dependent financial system grew lower than anticipated within the fourth quarter of 2024 however managed the quickest progress in three years final yr at 4.3%, reaping the advantages of the AI increase and a restoration in demand from China.

Analysts warned of uncertainty within the yr forward, nevertheless, probably affected by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff insurance policies or calls to spice up manufacturing in the US, which Taishin Funding Advisory analyst Kevin Wang mentioned might affect Taiwanese corporations’ funding planning.

Taiwan is a key a part of the worldwide expertise provide chain for corporations comparable to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and is house to the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co,.

Gross home product grew a preliminary 1.84% within the October-December interval from a yr earlier, the statistics company mentioned on Friday, lacking the two.0% progress forecast by analysts in a Reuters ballot. It was additionally slower than the 4.17% enlargement within the third quarter.

“This fall progress was beneath forecasts primarily attributable to a considerable improve of imported tools, which offset the contribution of exports, although AI purposes and data and telecommunications merchandise led to a 9.09% achieve in exports yr on yr,” Taishin Funding Advisory’s Wang mentioned.

Quarter-on-quarter, the financial system in October-December grew at a seasonally adjusted annualised charge of two.04% .

Fourth-quarter exports rose 9.1% year-on-year, barely sooner than the third-quarter’s 8.1%, powered by tech-heavy exporters together with chipmakers that acquired a lift from AI-related demand.

Full-year progress of 4.3% was in keeping with the statistics bureau’s November forecast of 4.27% and the quickest tempo in three years. In 2023, the financial system expanded 1.31%, a 14-year low.

The statistics company is because of launch first-quarter GDP information on Feb. 26, when it should additionally replace its full-year forecast.