OPEC+ prone to stick to grease output hike plan, sources say

By Maha El Dahan, Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC+ is prone to adhere to present plans to lift output regularly from April when a panel of high ministers meets on Monday, delegates from the producer group advised Reuters, regardless of U.S. President Donald Trump urging OPEC to decrease costs.

4 OPEC+ sources mentioned Monday’s assembly of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, set to start at 1300 GMT, was unlikely to advocate that OPEC+ will increase output greater than already deliberate. All sources declined to be recognized by title.

The assembly comes after U.S. President Donald Trump introduced sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, America’s high buying and selling companions, in a transfer that has roiled monetary markets and on Monday, given oil costs some assist.

“We predict the intention stays to remain the course,” mentioned RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft in a notice.

“We do suspect there can be a fragile diplomatic dance to make sure that the group and varied member states aren’t on the receiving finish of retaliatory ire,” she added.

Concern in regards to the influence of U.S. sanctions on Russia pushed oil costs to $83 a barrel on Jan. 15, the very best since August. Costs have since slipped beneath $77, though they have been up on Monday because the tariffs raised considerations over provide disruption.

The Group of the Petroleum Exporting International locations and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+, is reducing output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), equal to about 5.7% of world provide, agreed in a collection of steps since 2022.

In December, OPEC+ prolonged its newest layer of cuts via the primary quarter of 2025, pushing again a plan to start elevating output to April. The extension was the most recent of a number of delays attributable to weak demand and rising provide outdoors the group.

Based mostly on that plan, the unwinding of two.2 million bpd of cuts – the newest layer – and the beginning of a rise for the United Arab Emirates, begins in April with a month-to-month rise of 138,000 bpd, based on Reuters calculations. The hikes will final till September 2026.

(Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, Maha El Dahan, Olesya Astakhova and Alex Lawler; Enhancing by Bernadette Baum)