EIA raises US oil manufacturing forecast for 2025

By Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON (Reuters) – U.S. oil manufacturing is poised to set a bigger file this yr than prior estimates, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) stated on Tuesday in its Quick-Time period Vitality Outlook report, however it maintained its estimate for demand development.

The EIA stated it now expects U.S. crude oil manufacturing to common 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its prior estimate of 13.55 million bpd.

The company held its estimate for U.S. consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels regular at 20.5 million bpd in 2025.

U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to maximise U.S. oil manufacturing at the same time as vitality executives have insisted on prioritizing capital self-discipline.

Whereas Brent crude costs are anticipated to common round $74 in 2025, they are going to fall to about $66 in 2026, the company stated, predicting gradual will increase in manufacturing mixed with comparatively weak international demand development.

OPEC+ manufacturing cuts will scale back international oil inventories and hold crude oil costs close to present ranges by means of the primary quarter of 2025, the EIA stated.

World liquid fuels manufacturing is about to rise by 1.7 million bpd in 2025, with about 100,000 bpd from OPEC+ producers. The group will improve manufacturing by 600,000 bpd in 2026 as they unwind voluntary manufacturing cuts, however will stay at ranges beneath their targets in an effort to restrict will increase in international oil inventories, EIA stated.

Output development exterior of OPEC+ can be pushed by the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana by means of 2026.

World liquid fuels consumption will rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, led by India and China, EIA stated. Nonetheless, the anticipated development continues to be slower than the pre-pandemic pattern, the EIA stated.

Any future imposition of tariffs by Trump on Canada and Mexico will not be presently anticipated to considerably have an effect on international oil provide, EIA stated, including that the tariffs and new U.S. sanctions on Russia have been sources of uncertainty for oil costs going ahead.

U.S. refinery utilization will stay comparatively excessive and internet U.S. gasoline exports will lower to fulfill home gasoline demand as a result of closure of two U.S. refineries, the EIA stated.

(Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar in Houston; Enhancing by Mark Porter and David Gregorio)