US financial progress slows in fourth quarter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. financial progress slowed within the fourth quarter, the federal government confirmed on Thursday, and the lack of momentum seems to have continued early this quarter amid chilly temperatures and considerations that tariffs will harm spending by way of increased costs.

Gross home product elevated at a 2.3% annualized fee final quarter after accelerating at a 3.1% tempo within the July-September quarter, the Commerce Division’s Bureau of Financial Evaluation (BEA) mentioned in its second GDP estimate for the fourth quarter on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated that GDP progress could be unrevised. GDP progress was revised up by lower than 0.1 proportion level, which after rounding matched the two.3% fee that was estimated final month.

Upgrades to authorities spending and exports have been partly offset by downward revisions to shopper spending and funding. Nonetheless, shopper spending, which accounts for greater than two-thirds of the economic system, grew at a 4.2% fee final quarter after rounding, matching the beforehand estimated tempo.

The economic system grew 2.8% in 2024 after increasing 2.9% in 2023.

It’s increasing properly above the 1.8% fee that Federal Reserve policymakers view because the non-inflationary progress tempo.

There are, nevertheless, indicators that progress cooled additional early within the first quarter.

Snowstorms and unseasonably chilly temperatures that blanketed many elements of the nation in January weighed on retail gross sales and the housing market and still have restrained job progress.

Tariffs on imports, already imposed or deliberate by President Donald Trump in his first month in workplace, have eroded shopper and enterprise confidence. Fears are mounting that tariffs, that are a tax, will improve costs of products and constrain the Federal Reserve’s means to proceed slicing rates of interest.

Efforts by the Trump administration to slash spending and shrink the federal government, which have resulted in unprecedented layoffs of federal employees are additionally seen posing a threat to spending, the primary engine of the economic system. Federal contractors have additionally been affected by the spending cuts.

A measure of home demand, ultimate gross sales to personal home purchasers – excluding inventories, commerce and authorities – elevated at a 3.0% fee. Personal ultimate gross sales have been beforehand estimated to have grown at a 3.2% tempo.

The private consumption expenditures worth index, excluding meals and power, rose at an upwardly revised 2.7% tempo. The so-called core PCE inflation was beforehand reported to have elevated at a 2.5% fee.

The core PCE worth index is likely one of the inflation measures tracked by the U.S. central financial institution for its 2% goal.

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