Mexican economic system seen flat in first quarter: Reuters ballot

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s economic system probably remained flat within the first three months of 2025 on account of uncertainty generated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff insurance policies, a Reuters ballot confirmed on Tuesday.

Gross Home Product (GDP) probably sat at 0.0% within the first quarter in seasonally adjusted phrases, based on the median forecast of 15 analysts polled by Reuters, in comparison with a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter decline within the final three months of 2024.

Analysts have for months warned that the Mexican economic system might have shrunk once more early this yr, which might suggest a technical recession. Nevertheless, the most recent information suggests better-than-expected exercise, although efficiency probably remained comfortable.

“The truth is that the nation is dealing with a posh financial situation, the place exterior and inner components are coming collectively to play towards it,” mentioned lender CIBanco.

When in comparison with the identical interval a yr earlier, nonetheless, analysts polled by Reuters anticipated the economic system to have expanded some 0.6%, a contact above the 0.5% year-on-year progress recorded within the fourth quarter of final yr.

Mexico’s GDP information is about to be printed on Wednesday.

One other Reuters ballot launched on Monday steered that the commerce shock generated by the USA’ tariff threats may trigger Latin America’s No. 2 economic system to broaden simply 0.2% this yr, down from 1.2% progress by way of 2024.

Final week, the Worldwide Financial Fund considerably reduce its forecast for Mexico’s financial progress.

(Reporting by Noe Torres; Further Reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Writing by Sarah Morland; Modifying by Joe Bavier)