Unique-US, UAE mentioned lifting Assad sanctions in change for break with Iran, sources say

By Maya Gebeily, Parisa Hafezi and Alexander Cornwell

BEIRUT/GENEVA/DUBAI (Reuters) – The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates have mentioned with one another the potential of lifting sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Lebanon’s Hezbollah, 5 individuals acquainted with the matter stated.

The conversations intensified in current months, the sources stated, pushed by the potential expiry on Dec. 20 of sweeping U.S. sanctions on Syria and by Israel’s marketing campaign towards Tehran’s regional community, together with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Iranian belongings in Syria.

The discussions occurred earlier than anti-Assad rebels swept into Aleppo final week of their greatest offensive in Syria for years.

In accordance with the sources, the brand new insurgent advance is a sign of exactly the kind of weak point in Assad’s alliance with Iran that the Emirati and U.S. initiative goals to take advantage of. But when Assad embraces Iranian assist for a counter-offensive, that would additionally complicate efforts to drive a wedge between them, the sources stated.

Iran’s international minister Abbas Araqchi visited Syria on Sunday in a present of assist for Assad, and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan spoke to Assad by telephone about newest developments on the weekend.

For this story, Reuters spoke to 2 U.S. sources, 4 Syrian and Lebanese interlocutors and two international diplomats who stated the U.S. and UAE see a window to drive a wedge between Assad and Iran, which helped him recapture swathes of his nation in the course of the civil struggle that erupted in 2011.

Lebanese media have reported that Israel had steered lifting U.S. sanctions on Syria. However the UAE initiative with the U.S. has not beforehand been reported. The entire sources spoke on situation of anonymity to debate the back-room diplomacy.

Syria’s authorities and the White Home didn’t reply to questions from Reuters. The UAE referred Reuters to its assertion on bin Zayed’s name with Assad.

The UAE has taken a number one position in rehabilitating Assad among the many primarily Sunni Muslim Arab states that shunned him after he accepted assist from Shi’ite, non-Arab Iran to place down the Sunni-led rise up towards him.

The Emirates hosted Assad in 2022, his first go to to an Arab nation for the reason that begin of the struggle, earlier than the Arab League reinstated Syria’s membership.

The UAE has lengthy hoped to distance Assad from Iran and desires to construct enterprise ties with Syria, however U.S. sanctions have hampered these efforts, the sources stated.

A senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran advised Reuters Iran had been knowledgeable “about behind-the-scenes efforts by some Arab international locations to isolate Iran… by distancing Syria from Tehran”.

The diplomat stated these efforts have been linked to gives of potential sanctions reduction by Washington.

‘CARROT AND STICK’

Hezbollah and its patron Iran have intervened in Syria since 2012 to guard Assad towards Sunni rebels – however their bases and weapons shipments by means of Syria have been repeatedly hit by Israel, which has sought to weaken Iran throughout the area.

In current months, Hezbollah withdrew fighters from Syria, together with the north, to concentrate on battling Israel in southern Lebanon. The rebels who swept this week into Aleppo pointed to the Hezbollah withdrawal as one of many the reason why they confronted little resistance from authorities forces.

A U.S. supply acquainted with the matter stated White Home officers mentioned an overture with Emirati officers, citing the UAE’s curiosity in financing Syria’s reconstruction and Assad’s “weakened place” after Israel’s offensive towards Hezbollah.

The potential of sanctions reduction for Assad, whereas Israel was hitting Iran’s allies, created an “alternative” to use a “carrot-and-stick method” to fracture Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hezbollah, the U.S. supply stated.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

The U.S. positioned sanctions on Syria after Assad cracked down towards protests towards him in 2011, and the sanctions have been repeatedly tightened within the years of struggle that adopted. The hardest, often called the Caesar Act, handed Congress in 2019.

The Caesar sanctions apply throughout Syrian enterprise sectors, to anybody coping with Syria no matter nationality and to these coping with Russian and Iranian entities in Syria.

Assad stated they amounted to financial warfare, blaming them for the Syrian forex’s collapse and drop in dwelling requirements.

The sanctions will “sundown” – or expire – on Dec. 20 until renewed by U.S. lawmakers.

A part of the current American-Emirati discussions centered on permitting Caesar sanctions to run out with out renewal, stated the U.S. supply and three of the Syrian interlocutors.

One Syrian interlocutor stated the UAE had raised letting them expire with White Home officers two months in the past, after having unsuccessfully pushed for not less than two years of sanctions reduction for Assad after a lethal earthquake in Feb. 2023.

Mohammad Alaa Ghanem, a Syrian activist in Washington, D.C. with the Residents for a Safe and Secure America, advised Reuters his group had been working to increase the Caesar sanctions and assessed that they had bipartisan assist to take action.

“We have been in talks over this for the previous couple of months, though after all no political consequence in a city like Washington could be assured 100%,” he stated.

Arab states produce other potential avenues to reward Assad for distancing himself from Iran.

A international diplomat primarily based within the Gulf advised Reuters each the UAE and Saudi Arabia had in current months provided “monetary incentives” to Assad to separate with Iran, saying they may not have been made with out coordination with Washington.

A supply with data of the matter advised Reuters that Syria, amongst different crises within the area, was a subject of debate throughout Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s go to to the UAE on Sunday.

A Lebanese interlocutor stated the UAE had additionally pledged funds to assist Syria rebuild war-ravaged infrastructure as a method to “pull Assad additional away from Iran”.

Iran has warned Assad to not stray far.

The senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran stated Iran’s Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei conveyed a message through his senior adviser Ali Larijani, who advised Assad: “don’t forget the previous.”

“The message served as a reminder to Assad of who his true allies are,” the diplomat stated.

‘PLAYING WITH FIRE’

Since Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7 final yr precipitating struggle in Gaza, Iran has mobilised its community of allies to hit Israel.

However Assad has largely prevented becoming a member of in, whilst Israel struck Hezbollah targets in his nation and bombed an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus.

A U.S. official stated Assad had “sat out” the struggle to keep away from additional Israeli strikes on Syria, and remained underneath “super strain” to not permit Hezbollah to re-arm by means of his nation.

Israel has signalled that it nonetheless has eyes on Syria. When saying the truce with Lebanon final week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Israel had been thwarting makes an attempt by Iran, Hezbollah and Syria’s military to convey weapons into Lebanon.

“Assad should perceive – he’s enjoying with fireplace,” Netanyahu stated.