Factbox-Brokerages see ‘unsure’ 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

(Reuters) -Uncertainties round U.S. insurance policies could gradual international financial progress modestly in 2025, in keeping with main brokerages. They anticipate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to gas volatility throughout international markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in flip, limiting the scope for main central banks to ease financial coverage.

World economies and fairness markets have had a strong 12 months, with international progress anticipated to common 3.1% this 12 months, a Reuters ballot printed in October confirmed.

Following are forecasts from some high banks on financial progress, inflation and the efficiency of main asset courses in 2025:

Forecasts for shares, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

goal yield goal

UBS International 6400 3.80% 1.04 7.60

Analysis 145

Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(subsequent 159(subsequent 7.50(subsequent

12-months) 12-months 12-months)

)

UBS International 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

Wealth

Administration

Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Funding

Institute

Societe 4.50% (This fall’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Generale

Deutsche Financial institution (ETR:DBKGn) 7000 4.7% (This fall’25) 1.03 (This fall’25)

7.50

Nomura 135 6.93

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 6500 3.55% (This fall’25) 1.10 (This fall’25) 138 7.60

(This fall’25) (This fall’25)

J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50

BofA International 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Analysis

Wells Fargo 4.00%

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jefferies 6000

Barclays (LON:BARC) 6600

Piper Sandler 6600

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20

BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) 3.65% (This fall’25) 1.15 (This fall’25) 131

(This fall’25)

Canaccord 6325

Genuity

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (This fall/This fall)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Financial institution 2.6% (This fall/This fall)

2.8% (This fall/This fall)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Funding

Institute

UBS International 2.6%

Wealth

Administration

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 2.1 (This fall’25) 2.3 (This fall’25)

BofA International 2.4%

Analysis

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Nomura 2.8%

Actual GDP Development:

Actual GDP progress forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS International 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Analysis FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 6.3%

1.2%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

UBS International Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Administration

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Citigroup 1.1% 1.0%

6.4%

Nomura 4.0%

2.2 0.8 1.0 5.8%

BofA International 2.4% 4.5%

Analysis 3.2% 0.9%

Deutsche Financial institution 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.5%

Funding

Institute

Berenberg 2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 6.5%

BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

* UBS International Analysis and UBS International Wealth Administration are distinct, unbiased divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Funding Institute is an entirely owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Financial institution