Investing.com — The euro has been preventing again towards the greenback, following its a post-U.S. election trip decrease, however Financial institution of America says now could be the time to to resume bearish bets on the one forex once more.
“ForEUR/USD, we consider that there’s restricted upside potential to 1.06 however extra room to the draw back, because the pair might fall under 1.05 on the again of recent tariff headlines,” strategists from Financial institution of America mentioned in a latest be aware
The relative power index and spot/50-day easy shifting common ratios counsel that bearish EUR/USD value motion is now not stretched, they added.
The bearish outlook on the euro comes even because the Federal Reserve is predicted to chop charges subsequent week. Nonetheless, this lower is basically priced into EUR/USD, the strategists mentioned, anticipating the up to date Fed outlook to mirror a shallow price lower cycle.
“[W]hile the Fed will lower subsequent week, the Fed’s consensus (median) can be to tilt the outlook in a extra hawkish course than in September or November,” Financial institution of America analysts famous in a latest report.
An upside shock in U.S. CPI, a measure of inflation due Wednesday, might weaken the greenback, however the affect will probably be non permanent.
Whereas a unfavorable shock in U.S. CPI information this week might initially weaken the greenback, the EUR/USD has proven “the bottom correlation to U.S. CPI surprises on this cycle,” the strategists mentioned.
In addition to an anticipated hawkish tilt from the Fed subsequent week on price outlook, the EUR/USD is prone to come added stress from the potential tariff headlines as President-elect Donald Trump formally takes the presidential reins subsequent month.
“For EURUSD, we consider that there’s restricted upside potential to 1.06 however extra room to the draw back, because the pair might fall under 1.05 on the again of recent tariff headlines,” strategists from Financial institution of America mentioned in a latest be aware
The relative power index and spot/50-day easy shifting common ratios counsel that bearish EUR/USD value motion is now not stretched, they added,
The bearish be aware on the euro comes even because the the Federal Reserve is predicted to chop charges subsequent week. However the lower is largestly priced into EUR/USD, the strategists mentioned, anticipating the up to date Fed outlook to mirror a shallow price lower cycle.
“[W]hile the Fed will lower subsequent week, the Fed’s consensus (median) can be to tilt the outlook in a extra hawkish course than in September or November,” Financial institution of America analysts famous in a latest report.
An upside shock in U.S. CPI, a measure of inflation, due Wednesday might present weaken the greenback, however the affect will probably be non permanent.
“Whereas a unfavorable shock in U.S. CPI information this week might initially weaken the greenback, the analysts be aware that EUR/USD has proven the bottom correlation to U.S. CPI surprises on this cycle,” the strategists mentioned.
In addition to a hawkish tilt from the Fed subsequent week on price outlook, the EUR/USD is prone to come added stress from the potential tariff headlines as President-elect Donald Trump formally takes the presidential reins subsequent month.
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